Tropical Cyclone “Evan” and the weekend

December 19, 2012

MetService expects to take over warning responsibility for Evan on Thursday,when it crosses 25 degrees South latitude.

Beyond Friday, Evan’s likely track remains very uncertain. On Sunday,there is an almost equal chance of it either swinging away from the North Island into the north Tasman Sea, or heading towards East Cape. It is looking increasingly likely that Evan will pass very close to northern parts of New Zealand.

“Evan’s path through the New Zealand area this weekend is even less clear than it was yesterday,” commented MetService Chief Forecaster Peter Kreft. “But as Evan draws closer to the country over the next couple of days, we would expect to be able to say more. It is a very long time since there’s been so much uncertainty over the track of a low through the New Zealand area.”

Evan will bring a large amount of tropical air into the New Zealand region,which means potential for heavy rainfall in places with strong onshore winds. “Currently, MetService is forecasting rain this weekend for the northern half of the North Island,” said Kreft.

“A small change in the expected track of Evan could result in a large change in the weekend’s forecast for just about any North Island place.
Over the next few days, it will be even more important to keep up with the forecasts and any warnings,” Kreft went on to say.

Irrespective of Evan’s path through the New Zealand area, Christmas Day is likely to be warm, and probably not windy, in most places. While most of the South Island should experience a dry day, the situation is less clear further north.

Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any watches/warnings at metservice.com or on mobile devices at m.metservice.com. You can also follow our updates @metservice on Twitter and MetService TV.

 

For further information please contact:
Peter Kreft Chief Forecaster (04)4700 806

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