Rug up warm-June likely to be a cool one

June 3, 2015

“A cooler than usual June looks likely for New Zealand,” said MetService Meteorologist Georgina Griffiths. “Below average June temperatures are expected this year – in sharp contrast to last June, which was the warmest on record for New Zealand.” While there will be weekly variation in temperatures, swinging between average and below average, the first and last weeks of June look particularly cold across large parts of the country.

Over the last month, El Nino has strengthened in the tropics, reaching levels not seen since 1997-98. The latest climate models predict a high chance (80-90%) that El Nino will continue through the rest of 2015. “Seas in the New Zealand region are cooling off faster than usual, which is consistent with changes we typically see here during an El Nino winter,” said Griffiths. “Sea temperatures are important for us, because to a certain extent they influence air temperatures in our coastal regions.”

Certainly, some farmers will be looking for a break in the weather this June. It has been a sopping wet April and May between Taranaki and Wellington, as well as for the West Coast of the South Island. Paraparaumu experienced its wettest May on record, following on from its wettest April ever. In just two months, 453mm of rain has fallen there. To put that in perspective, that’s nearly the same as the amount recorded at Westport over the same time (477mm)! But that’s nothing-Milford Sound has clocked up in excess of 1,700mm this April and May. In contrast, only 2.8mm of rain fell in Timaru in May (the fourth driest month on record there), while Oamaru received just 8.8mm.

During the first week of June, a major Low rolls across the country,bringing significant precipitation and strong winds to many parts of the country. “June starts pretty wet and wild, with the risk of extreme rain or snow in the mix. But, as the month progresses, the weather is likely to settle back to more typical early-winter patterns,” added Griffiths. Rainfall for the remainder of the month looks closer to June normal for western regions, but normal to below normal for the north and east of both Islands.

For further information, the latest Rural Outlook can be found at

http://www.metservice.com/rural/monthly-outlook

And as always, keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any watches/warnings at metservice.com or on mobile devices at m.metservice.com. You can also follow our updates on MetService TV, at MetService New Zealand on Facebook@metservice on Twitter and at blog.metservice.com.

For further information please contact:
Georgina Griffiths Meteorologist 0277 024 622

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