Warm temperatures to start the week then rain

January 24, 2016

It was fine and hot for many across the country on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the early 30s for some.  The weather stations in Onehunga and Masterton recorded 30 degrees yesterday, while in the South Island Blenheim Airport recoded 32 degrees and Christchurch City 31.2 degrees.  It’s shaping up to be another hot one today, especially for the North Island.

However, a stationary front situated in the Far South has been bringing heavy rain to the West Coast, especially southern Westland and Fiordland, and scattered falls to Southland and Otago. Milford Airport recorded 257.4 mm in the 36 hours to 11 o’clock this morning, and Secretary Island recorded 181 mm in the same period. The rain in these areas is expected to continue through to Tuesday morning, and a Severe Weather Warning and Watch is in force, with total accumulations of 500 mm or more possible in some places. “This is an exceptionally large amount of rain, even for these areas, and people are advised that rivers and streams will rise rapidly and slips and flash flooding are likely,” said MetService Meteorologist Ciaran Doolin.

Meanwhile, in the Tropics, Tropical Cyclone Victor was reclassified as a Tropical Low overnight Friday. Currently located approximately 1500 km northeast of Cape Reinga, the Tropical Low, Cyclone Victor, is expected to move out of the Tropics today and undergo a transition into a mid-latitude low near the Kermadec Islands on Monday. From there it is expected to continue to track south and pass close to the northeast of the North Island on Wednesday.

Going into next week, Monday should be mostly fine for the North Island and some eastern areas of the South Island. The warm temperatures are looking set to continue, with a number of places in Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa forecast to exceed 30 degrees. Meanwhile, on Monday the front currently situated in the Far South slowly moves up the South Island, becoming stationary again near the top of the Island on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the first band of rain associated with Cyclone Victor spreads across the North Island, while the stationary front keeps most of the South Island wet.

On Wednesday, Cyclone Victor is forecast to make its approach on the country and is expected to be northeast of Gisborne by midnight. “At present the computer models are fairly consistent with respect to the track of Cyclone Victor and the distribution of weather associated with the system,” explained Doolin. “At this stage, Victor is expected to bring strong winds, rain with some heavy falls and moderate swells to north eastern areas of the North Island from Wednesday through into Thursday. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the system’s intensity so people are advised to monitor the latest forecasts and any Severe Weather Watches or Warnings that may be issued,” he said.  In the South Island, rain in the north is expected to ease on Thursday as the stationary front weakens.

As the working week comes to a close, Cyclone Victor is expected to track south of the east coast of the North Island on Thursday and the rain is forecast to ease as the system moves off.  On Friday a body of warm, moist tropical is expected to produce periods of rain for most central and northern areas of the North Island.

Official Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are reviewed and re-issued by MetService at least every twelve hours, and more often if necessary. To get the most up to date information on severe weather around the country, or any other forecasts, see metservice.com or on mobile devices at m.metservice.com. You can also follow our updates on MetService TV, at MetService New Zealand on Facebook, @metservice and @MetServiceWARN on Twitter and at blog.metservice.com 

 

MetService issues Warnings, Watches and Outlooks for severe weather over New Zealand.

Warnings are about taking action when severe weather is imminent or is occurring. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: ACT 

Watches are about being alert when severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a Warning to be issued. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: BE READY 

Outlooks are about looking ahead, providing advance information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings. They are issued routinely once or twice a day.
Recommendation: PLAN 

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