A warmer November for eastern regions

November 1, 2016

Frequent lows in the New Zealand region left their calling card in October. Rainfall was abundant in many regions, with the notable exceptions of Wairarapa and southern Hawkes Bay. The North Island copped an unusually wet start to October, as did Nelson and Otago. “Canterbury and Marlborough also picked up significant totals during October, with 50-80mm of rainfall commonly recorded in these regions,” noted MetService Meteorologist Georgina Griffiths. The first half of the month ran unusually warm across the country, but finished with a cooler southerly regime. However, October as a whole ended up on the warm side of the ledger.

La Nina-like patterns are currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, the influence from the tropics is likely to be minimal in New Zealand in the short-term. “The Tasman Sea has been driving most of our weather lately, and this pattern is forecast to continue into November,” said Griffiths. “A mixture of low pressures and westerly winds is expected to prevail over New Zealand during November”.

Temperatures are expected to be fairly variable during November. For most regions, this week starts a touch cooler, while next week is predicted to be extremely warm for this time of year. For eastern areas of both Islands (Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Marlborough, Canterbury, eastern Otago), and also for Southland, monthly temperatures are predicted to be above average. Elsewhere, November temperatures end up ‘near average,’ overall.

Above normal rainfall is signalled for the West Coast of the South Island. For the eastern regions of both Islands, November rainfall totals should run fairly close to the norm, possibly a hint drier. In all other regions, November should end up slightly on the wet side of the ledger (near normal to above normal totals).

2016-11-01

The latest Rural Outlook can be found at www.metservice.com/rural/monthly-outlookYou can keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any watches/warnings metservice.com or on mobile devices at m.metservice.com. You can also follow our updates on MetService TV, at MetService New Zealand on Facebook,@metservice and @MetServiceWARN on Twitter and at blog.metservice.com.

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