Fizzle or the shizzle? Here’s your Guy Fawkes forecast.

November 3, 2016

With fireworks and bonfires planned for this weekend, many will be hoping for a calm dry Saturday night. The good news is that the showery weather that features at the end of the week takes a brief break on Saturday as a slim ridge rolls by.

As shown in the graphic below, the West Coast of the South Island is likely to get rain as a front approaches, with a smaller chance of rain further north for the Kapiti Coast, central plateau and northern Taranaki.  The current outlook for the rest of the country looks like delivering a rain-free evening.

This chart shows the ensemble probability of more than 0.1mm of rain during Saturday evening, calculated by comparing fifty-one different weather models.

MetService meteorologist Tom Adams said, “While the dry outlook for many might sound promising, wind could be an issue on Saturday night as strong northwesterlies build ahead of the approaching front.”

“Most of the South Island and lower North Island can expect fresh northerlies, reaching gale in Cook Strait by Sunday morning, so plan ahead before firing off rockets at home and check the latest updates from organisers of public fireworks displays,” said Adams.

Looking ahead, much of the country can expect a wet finish to the weekend as the front moves north, bringing a blast of rain during the second half of Sunday. The rain should hold off in the main centres on Sunday morning, but there’s a good chance it’ll be heavy and thundery in the evening in the upper North Island, including Auckland. Next week starts off wet but should improve by Tuesday.

Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any watches/warnings at or on mobile devices at You can also follow our updates on MetService TV, at MetService New Zealand on Facebook,@metservice and @MetServiceWARN on Twitter and at

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