03/09/2026
Covering period of Thursday 3rd – Monday 7th September
- Strong northwesterly winds for eastern parts of the South Island and the lower North Island on Friday.
- Showery weather dominates, with persistent rain and heavier falls expected in the west of the South Island.
- Mild spring temperatures and some sunshine are likely in eastern parts.
- Another low pressure system brings rain to most parts of the country on Sunday.
Aotearoa New Zealand is set to experience changeable weather over the coming days. Strong winds, showers, rain and milder temperatures are all in the mix.
MetService Meteorologist Sophie Huntington, says, “We’re expecting a bit of everything heading into the weekend. It will be wet and windy in some places, while further east it will be mild with some sunshine.”
Strong northwesterly winds will affect eastern parts of the South Island and the lower North Island on Friday. An Orange Strong Wind Warning is in place for Wellington and Wairarapa (excluding the Tararua District) Friday morning, along with Strong Wind Watches in eastern parts of the country.
A front approaches the far south this evening before moving northwards, reaching central parts of the country around midday Friday. As a result, the west of the South Island will see persistent rain, with heavier falls developing about the ranges this evening. An Orange Heavy Rain Warning is in place for the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers about and south of Arthur’s Pass National Park from midnight tonight until 8am Friday, along with a Heavy Rain Watch for Buller.
Thunderstorms are possible as the front moves up the South Island, bringing strong wind gusts and hail. The front then weakens as it pushes up the North Island.
Despite the unsettled weather in the west, eastern parts of the country can expect some mild spring conditions with sunny spells. However, increasing high cloud, particularly across the South Island, may take the edge off the sunshine at times.
Looking ahead to Sunday, a low pressure system is developing in the Tasman Sea and is expected to bring widespread rain and showers to end the weekend. The South Island is likely to see the heaviest falls, with rain not reaching parts of the North Island until late.
For those heading to the AIMS Games in Tauranga, a fine start to the event is expected, with some showers possible on Monday.
“Next week looks like a shift towards more southwesterly winds, so temperatures will come down a notch,” says Huntington.
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Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
- This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
- When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
- Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
- In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
- When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
- Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
- In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
- When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
- Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
- In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
- Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
- Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
- During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
- When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
- Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
- During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
- To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
- Issued routinely once or twice a day
- Recommendation: Plan
To get the most up to date information on severe weather around the country, or any other forecasts, see metservice.com or download the MetService mobile app
You can also follow our updates on MetService TV or on social media
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