12/10/2026
Covering period of Monday 12th – Thursday 15th October
– Warmer than average temperatures to start the week
– Rain arrives to the south on Tuesday, spreading north on Wednesday.
New Zealand is in for a mainly sunny start to the week, aside from rain spreading across northern parts of the North Island. A cold front moves onto the southern South Island on Tuesday, with a strengthening northwersterly flow ahead of it, giving eastern areas a summer-like feel. Overnight temperatures will also remain in the mid-teens for many, bringing only little reprieve to the daytime heat.
MetService Meteorologist Maddy Neal says “Temperatures are looking to soar into the high 20’s for eastern areas of the country at the start of this week, with places in the Hawke’s Bay and Canterbury looking at a cracking 27 degrees Celsius on Tuesday. Notably, Hastings is forecast to reach 28 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, which is 9 degrees warmer than average!”
However, temperatures are set to plummet as the cold front moves northwards, bringing with it rain and a marked southerly change. A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for the Ranges of Westland and the Grey Districts north of Mount Cook, valid between 9pm Tuesday to 3pm Wednesday. Some South Island ranges may possibly see heavy rain on Wednesday, as well as the Tararua Range in the North Island. Northerly winds will also pick up in exposed parts of Wellington on Wednesday.
“As this front moves up the country throughout the week, warmer weather is going to be replaced by a wet winter chill! So, if you’ve put the winter duvet away already, it may be worth digging back out towards the end of the week,” Neal says.
Rain spreading up the country may be welcome by some, as October so far has been drier than normal, leading to below average moisture levels in the soil, particularly in the North Island. There may also be a possible dusting of snow for the likes of the higher South Island passes and high-country farms.
Please keep up to date with the most current information from MetService at metservice.com
For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
- This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
- When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
- Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
- In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
- When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
- Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
- In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
- When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
- Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
- In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
- Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
- Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
- During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
- When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
- Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
- During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
- To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
- Issued routinely once or twice a day
- Recommendation: Plan
To get the most up to date information on severe weather around the country, or any other forecasts, see metservice.com or download the MetService mobile app
You can also follow our updates on MetService TV or on social media
